1. Three-Layer Pricing
① OSP list (SOMO official, vs Oman/Dubai average): For December-loading Asia cargoes, Basra Light is set at a $0.45/bbl premium to Oman/Dubai (up $0.15 from November's Medium -$2.80), and Basra Heavy at a $0.95/bbl discount (narrowed $0.10 from -$5.80). SOMO also confirmed it will launch a standalone "Basra Medium" grade in January 2027, split from Basra Light into Light (~33° API) and Medium (~29° API), comparable to Qatar's Al-Shaheen.
② Spot extra discount (term dark discount, FOB): Recent loading cargoes keep deep discounts — Light/Medium FOB dark discount around -$34.50/bbl, Heavy around -$37.00/bbl, deeper than pre-war.
③ Loadport premium & STS: Non-Hormuz loadings (Oman offshore STS at Fujairah) typically carry a further $5–13/bbl premium to benchmark; November loading premium reference follows the prior mechanism (1st–10th ≥$0.20, 11th–30th ≥$3.00/bbl FOB STS).
2. Net Delivered Discount
Net FOB ≈ OSP + spot dark discount: Light/Medium around -$34.05/bbl, Heavy around -$37.95/bbl. Adding freight and war risk (about $21–26/bbl per voyage friction), delivered-to-China cost is roughly ICE Brent +$12–20/bbl. Procurement should anchor on net delivered price, not the OSP list.
3. Geopolitics & Freight
In the early hours of November 1, CCTV reported Iran announced closure of the Strait of Hormuz to all vessels including tankers and merchant ships. Iran's Persian Gulf Strait Authority (PGSA) began fleet-wide legal action against South Korea's Sinokor from November 1 — public shipping tracking estimates the company carried about 105.6 million barrels through the strait in September, roughly 37% of the month's crude. War-risk hull premium holds at 6%–10% (vs 0.15%–0.25% pre-war), single-VLCC additional insurance $6–10 million; IEA public data shows Gulf shipping cost has reached about $37/bbl (roughly 5× pre-war). U.S. CENTCOM reported it had rerouted 138 merchant ships for the blockade by mid-October, with over 3,000 ships and more than 1.5 billion barrels of crude transiting since summer.
4. China Refiners
As Iranian supply shrank (China's September Iranian crude imports nearly halved year-on-year to about 590 kb/d, with September exports interrupted — first such occurrence since public tracking began in 2013), independent refiners lifted October–November Iraqi Basra Medium/Heavy and Qatar Al-Shaheen purchases to an estimated 15–20 million barrels via Mercuria, Totsa and Trafigura, at delivered premiums of $12–20/bbl to ICE Brent. Iraqi crude has become the new benchmark for Chinese independents.
Sources: SOMO official pricing notices (per Shafaq), public market quotes, IEA/UKMTO public data, CCTV Finance, Jin10, Sina Finance. Figures are being updated; refer to the latest official releases.
