① Official formula price (SOMO, vs Oman/Dubai average): On Nov 9 SOMO set the December Asia OSP - Basra Medium at a $8.80/bbl discount and Basra Heavy at a $11.80/bbl discount to the Oman/Dubai average, each $6.00 deeper than November (Medium -$2.80, Heavy -$5.80), following Saudi Aramco's own cut to defend market share. Context: Aramco cut December Arab Light to a $6.50/bbl discount (narrowest since May 2020); SOMO went further - December Medium -$8.80 is steeper than Saudi Arab Medium (-$8.00), and Heavy -$11.80 steeper than Arab Heavy (-$9.35). Iraq's October loadings rose to ~3.5 mb/d (from 2.65 mb/d in September), aided by recovering Ceyhan flows. SOMO also confirmed a standalone "Basra Medium" grade launching January 2027, split from Basra Light.

② Spot and delivered (layer two): Market trade information shows Chinese independent refiners have locked ~6-8 million barrels of Iraqi crude for December arrival, with Basra Heavy delivered at a premium of about $10-13/bbl to ICE Brent via international trading houses. That premium has narrowed from the +$12-20/bbl seen on October cargoes, reflecting easing freight and war-risk friction. In practice, with the OSP now deeply negative, buyers should anchor on the net-delivered price rather than the OSP list - net FOB ≈ OSP plus freight and war-risk friction.

③ Hormuz and geopolitics (layer three - risk premium): On Nov 11 UKMTO received a report of a tanker incident in the strait (suspected IRGC strike or mine, unconfirmed, no official casualty/damage figures); Hamer Intel published a related report the same day. Risk indicators remain extreme: public shipping trackers show commercial transits at roughly 4% of pre-crisis levels (about 3 vessels/day on Nov 8 vs ~85 pre-crisis), war-risk premiums at ~32x peacetime, single-VLCC voyage surcharge ~$2.5-10 million, and the Lloyd's Joint War Committee still lists the Persian Gulf as a high-risk area. Yet overall Gulf exports are recovering via Ceyhan and Red Sea pipelines - October Saudi/UAE/Iraq/Kuwait combined ~15.53 mb/d, near pre-war levels. Brent dipped to a $89.66 low on Nov 10 before rebounding above $92 on Nov 11.

④ Chinese refiners: With some origins constrained, independents keep locking December Basra medium/heavy as replacement supply; Iraqi crude has become the new Chinese teapot benchmark. Procure on a net-delivered basis and pad schedules by at least one week against strait disruption.

⑤ Sanctions-compliance note: Under our sanctions-compliance red lines, the Iran origin is outside our supply scope (our company provides no trading services for that origin); this watch covers Iran only as objective Hormuz geopolitical news. Iraq's Basra series (SOMO, directly signable) is tradable supply.

Sources: SOMO official pricing notices, CLS (Cailian Press), Eastmoney, CCTV Finance, public IEA data, UKMTO, Hamer Intel, Region Alert, straits.live, gCaptain, Jin10, Sina Finance. Figures are being updated; refer to the latest official releases.