Asia's base oils exports held high for a second straight month in September. Data from Korea Customs Service, Enterprise Singapore and other governments put shipments above 700,000 tonnes, second only to August's 710,000-plus tonnes and the second-highest monthly volume in six months; third-quarter exports exceeded 2.07 million tonnes, the highest since the first quarter of 2023. The number arrived in a month when intra-regional demand normally recovers after the summer — it did not. Shipments into Asian markets fell to a four-month low.

The centre of gravity has moved west. September cargoes to the US and Europe exceeded 190,000 tonnes, 28% of the total and the highest since October 2019, against 25% in August and under 15% in the first half of 2026. The intra-Asia share was 54%, flat on August but well below July's 62% and close to 70% in the first half. By market, exports to China fell further, Southeast Asia dropped to a five-month low, and only India recovered. Arbitrage did the work: strong demand for Korean Group III and tight European Group II pulled cargoes in both directions at once.

Japan has changed position on that map. August base oils imports were 9,300 kilolitres, down 30% year on year and a fifth consecutive annual decline, covering just 5.8% of supply against a 2025 norm of roughly 9%. Domestic base oils and lubricants demand was 166,400 kilolitres, up 4% year on year, lifting the domestic share of total demand to 90% from 85% in June. The sourcing side contracted in parallel: arrivals from Korea fell to a six-month low and Qatari volumes ran below half of normal, with the two combined at their lowest in six months. Japan has moved from regional swing supplier to domestic absorber — not because demand is strong, but because import economics stopped working.

For SNSUC there are two windows that must be handled separately. First, Group I/II: fewer long-haul loadings in October as price gaps narrowed mean more of Asia's output has to find buyers at home in November and December, and with crude lower, the bargaining window for Q1 arrival sits in late November to early December — the best stretch left this year. Second, Group III: the structural shortage has not eased, with Korean units at full rates, producer profits at records and Indian cargoes drawn to the Americas and Southeast Asia. It cannot be assumed to fall in line with Group I/II. SN150 and SN500 therefore have to be priced separately rather than quoted off a single “Asian base oils average”, and where customers ask to lock Q1 on Group III-linked grades, we would rather cut volume than sell forward against supply we cannot secure. This is a market observation based on public data and does not constitute investment advice.