On 12 November, Inpex announced at its Tokyo results briefing that it is raising its FY2026 (ending March 2027) net profit forecast from ¥510 billion to ¥550 billion, up 7.8%, a company record if achieved. Net profit for January–September 2026 reached ¥407.6 billion, up 38.9% year on year, which the company attributed to higher energy prices and strong Ichthys output — enough to offset an expected 50% year-on-year drop in Abu Dhabi equity crude sales. Senior Executive Vice President Toshiaki Takimoto confirmed Ichthys full-year LNG shipments will exceed the August guidance (roughly 10 cargoes per month) by several cargoes.

The operational detail at Ichthys is worth tracking. Per Inpex's results materials, cumulative LNG shipments for January–October 2026 stood at 106 cargoes (112 in the same period of 2025), with 9 in October alone. Since September, tie-in and commissioning of the low-pressure Booster Compressor Module has been underway; the first train has completed the transition to low-pressure production, with the remaining two trains to follow sequentially through early 2027 — improving resilience against natural well decline. The company also flagged a roughly 1.5-month planned shutdown of Train 1 from mid-July 2027, marking a defined supply gap on next year's calendar.

Three transmission channels matter for Japan. First, Ichthys is the largest single source of Japan's equity LNG; record-range output shrinks the volume Japanese buyers are forced to chase in a spot market where JKM is still plateaued above $30/MMBtu. Second, the halving of Abu Dhabi crude sales alongside Inpex's stated intent to keep its Middle East strategy while evaluating new supply sources elsewhere shows Japanese upstream is diversifying — directionally consistent with the crude import source shift we covered earlier (the US jumping to second place in September). Third, the FX assumption is itself a profit variable: Inpex's books assume roughly ¥158.7–158.8 per dollar, so a deeply weak yen inflates dollar revenue into yen profit — a tailwind for Inpex and a headwind for Japan's import bill, two sides of the same rate.

Implications for SNSUC: steady equity gas supply combined with elevated JKM means Japanese utilities will be more selective and window-driven on incremental spot inquiries. Japan-facing LNG/LPG quoting should track the Ichthys shipping calendar (especially the July 2027 shutdown window) rather than JKM levels alone. Our accessible slate remains LNG/LPG, base oils SN150/SN500, paraffin wax and lubricants; hazardous chemicals are strictly excluded. Risk note: this is a market observation based on public data and does not constitute investment advice.