Asphalt import cost rose ¥217/ton—not from price moves, but from rigid quota enforcement. Asphalt futures dropped 3.91% to ¥5,111/ton, suggesting an open arbitrage window; yet customs data shows the second batch of 2026 refined product import quotas is 98.7% utilized, leaving only 32,000 tons—less than one-fifth of monthly average imports. At Brent $106.09/bbl, ESPO-based asphalt landed duty-paid cost is ¥4,894/ton; adding quota premium (industry norm: ¥200–¥250/ton for over-quota clearance) pushes realizable cost to ¥5,111–¥5,144/ton—exactly overlapping with futures. Fuel oil’s +1.71% to ¥4,516/ton reveals a different reality: low-sulfur fuel oil quota usage remains at 71.4%, but customs now mandates strict tri-document alignment (bill of lading, warehouse receipt, commercial invoice) on four elements—commodity description, weight, load port, discharge port—with zero tolerance for deviation. SNSUC platform’s offshore re-export document rejection rate hit 12.3% on Oct 11, up 4.8ppts MoM. Natural rubber’s +2.08% to ¥20,640/ton contrasts sharply with its 53.6% quota utilization—confirming regulators have pivoted from ‘quota availability’ to ‘genuine trade verification’: rubber shipments now require pre-shipment SGS/CCIC tally reports and bank payment records from consignees. USD/CNY at 6.6935 (+0.01%) appears benign—but flattening FX volatility sharpens customs focus on documentary logic over FX anomalies. Clear call: bearish near-term asphalt import arbitrage. Reversal triggers: official quota top-up announcement or futures backwardation exceeding ¥300/ton. Action: SNSUC clients should pause new asphalt import contracts; instead, deploy remaining fuel oil quota for bonded storage + priced sales, and advance rubber re-export documentation to 72 hours pre-loading.