Thailand’s refinery throughput at 1,039 kbpd exceeds its crude imports of 946 kbpd — the 93 kbpd gap must be covered by domestic output (176 kbpd) and inventory drawdown, confirming Thailand’s evolution into a regional crude reprocessing node. Singapore reports 715 kbpd crude imports but no refinery throughput or production in JODI — consistent with its role as pure transshipment conduit, not processor. Indonesia imports just 368 kbpd yet processes 953 kbpd; the 585 kbpd shortfall is covered by domestic output (546 kbpd), proving deep localization of refining capacity independent of continuous import arrivals. Malaysia imports 329 kbpd but reports no throughput or stocks — processing status indeterminate. Philippines imports 103 kbpd — terminal-consumption scale only. Malacca Strait AIS visibility: 89 vessels/day (+21.5% vs 30-day avg), within historical norm (76), signaling no logistics bottleneck. Thailand’s refined product stocks total 22,511 kbbl, with diesel at 9,913 kbbl (44%) and jet fuel at 3,390 kbbl (15%) — structure confirms shift toward high-margin middle distillates, fully aligned with its refining mandate. Brent up 2.44% to $113.50, WTI up 0.89%, spread widened to $10.59 — cost headwind for Thai refiners, but pricing leverage on exported products. Singaporean transshippers face dual pressure: surging spot crude costs + weak marine fuel demand (previously covered). Regional equities weak: SET down 1.68%, IDX down 0.80%; only KLCI up 0.28% — reflecting muted confidence in refining margin recovery. USD/THB flat, USD/SGD down 0.16% — reinforcing Thailand’s import cost stability advantage over Singapore. Upside trigger: Thailand’s throughput sustained above 1,050 kbpd for two months, or Indonesia’s throughput breaks 970 kbpd. Downside trigger: Malacca Strait AIS visibility falls below 65 vessels/day for 5 consecutive days, or Thailand’s crude imports drop below 900 kbpd in one month. Stance: Bullish. Will shift to neutral if Brent breaches $116 AND Thailand’s imports fall below 930 kbpd for two months. SNSUC client actions: ① Thai clients: activate ESPO crude price-fixing window now for December arrival cargoes; ② Singapore transshippers: pause new LSFO forward purchases until Brent retreats below $111; ③ Indonesian clients: prioritize Basrah Light shipments — optimal API/sulfur match for local refinery feedstock specs; ④ All clients: hedge USD/CNY exposure — 6.6558 is YTD low; lock minimum 60% of FX exposure.