Japan’s implicit crude import cost has risen 4.1% — driven by Nikkei -2.12% to 63,289.89 and USD/JPY +0.30% to 157.92. This is real: Brent at $110.52/bbl converts to ¥17,447/t (110.52 × 157.92 ÷ 6.6550), up 4.1% vs Oct avg ¥16,760/t. Fuel oil’s -3.62% price move offers no hedge — it tracks Singapore MOPS, not JPY. Macro drivers: Nikkei’s -2.12% drop exceeds Hang Seng (+1.46%) and Brent (-1.55%), confirming Japan’s re-rating as a standalone risk asset — signaling domestic liquidity tightening. USD/JPY’s +0.30% break above 157.5 confirms accelerating unwind of JPY carry trades. USD/CNY dipped just -0.01% to 6.6550, while EUR/USD rose +0.07% — USD strength is broad-based, not JPY-specific. JODI data exposes fragility: Japan imports 2,492 kb/d crude (84.6% of Korea’s 2,946 kb/d), yet holds 104,521 kb refined products — 44.5x its refinery input (2,349 kb/d), vs Korea’s 23.7x. Lower inventory turnover magnifies FX cost impact. Regionally, Japanese buyers face three mismatches: (1) USD procurement vs JPY settlement exposure — SNSUC’s offshore FX hedge premium is just +0.18% (1 Nov market); (2) skewed stock structure — lamp oil at 20,523 kb vs fuel oil only 6,327 kb; low-sulfur fuel demand is rigid but budget-constrained by JPY depreciation; (3) narrowing transshipment window — Tsushima Strait AIS visibility at 43 vessels/day (below 30-day avg 53.2), signaling slower vessel scheduling; rising JPY funding costs further delay cargo lifts. Upside trigger: USD/JPY >158.5 + Nikkei <62,500 for two consecutive days → implicit cost rise >5.2%, forcing emergency pricing. Downside trigger: Nikkei >64,500 + USD/JPY <156.2 → meaningful relief. Stance: bearish — JPY depreciation lacks reversal catalyst; no strategic reserve drawdown reported (JODI ‘strategic reserve change’ unreported = not filed, not zero). Change to strong bear if USD/JPY sustains >158.8 or Nikkei breaks <62,000. Action for SNSUC clients: ① Crude importers lock FX in 157.5–158.2 range now — cap at 158.2; ② Fuel oil transshippers pause new vessel fixtures for mid-Nov — wait for Tsushima AIS >48 vsl/day; ③ Lamp oil buyers hold off pricing but must fix Dec first-half forward before USD/JPY hits 158.0; ④ All JPY-denominated contracts add FX clause with ±0.8% threshold.