Germany and Italy imported 2,754 kb/d of crude in Aug 2026 — 38.4% of the EU-7 total of 7,189 kb/d, +9.8 pts vs the 28.6% implied by equal weighting. By absolute volume, both remain structural anchors: Germany’s 1,529 kb/d exceeds its refinery input (1,490) minus domestic output (30) by just 69 kb/d, but its intake remains the highest; Italy’s 1,225 kb/d falls short of its refinery input (1,379) by 154 kb/d, yet it is the second-largest importer — confirming its role as a southern gateway. Netherlands imported 1,100 kb/d vs 1,033 kb/d refinery input — a narrow 67 kb/d gap — but with only 33,357 kb of crude inventory (25.3% of Germany’s), and fuel oil making up 20.3% of its total refined product stocks (13,003/64,203 kb), indicating fast tank turnover and strong blending demand. UK imported just 666 kb/d against 906 kb/d refinery input — a 240 kb/d deficit fully import-dependent — while holding the lowest crude inventory (16,892 kb, <13% of Germany’s), leaving zero operational buffer. France (1,013 kb/d import vs 991 kb/d input) is balanced; Spain (1,356 vs 1,296 kb/d) runs a modest 60 kb/d surplus, with 34,108 kb inventory — mid-range. Gibraltar (42 ships/day, vs 43 normal) and Suez (17 vs 17) are unimpeded; Mandeb (6 vs 17) and Bosporus (15 vs 24) show reduced AIS visibility — not trade collapse, but prompting ARA terminals to reprice arrival timing risk for Middle East/Black Sea cargoes. EUR/CNY fell 0.42% to 7.4150; Brent rose 1.71% to $93.06 — RMB-denominated landed cost up 2.13%. SNSUC clients face divergent realities: DE/IT retain pricing power; NL/UK operate on ‘buy-to-refill’ terms, ceding margin. Bullish — explicit. Reverse to neutral if Brent breaks $89.50 or Germany’s import slips below 1,450 kb/d monthly. Action: ① Lock Brent-ESPO spread for DE/IT clients now — window $5.20–$5.86/bbl; ② Prioritize vessel arrivals at ARA in first half of Dec for NL/UK clients, avoiding Christmas congestion; ③ Hedge all EUR-denominated contracts at EUR/CNY ≥7.4250; ④ Pause fuel oil procurement from Spain — diesel inventory (39,337 kb, 53% of refined stock) is structurally elevated. SNSUC Research Institute / Qiu Binbin