On 7 September Brent printed $97.49/bbl, up 1.26% and approaching the $98 psychological level, with Middle East risk premium persisting and OPEC+ extension expectations building. For crude transit trade, a rising flat price is a shared cost; what actually determines the P&L of a single cargo is the differential structure across ESPO, Dubai and Oman.

Brent at $88.33/bbl (+0.05%) and WTI at $83.47/bbl (+0.02%). October ESPO Blend on a DES Shandong basis has reached parity with ICE Brent, with remaining offers up to a $2/bbl premium, versus roughly a $3 discount for September cargoes traded in mid-July; at least 30 of the ~42 October cargoes were locked in early by Chinese refiners, close to twice July's 17-cargo intake. Saudi Arabia's September Arab Light OSP discount to the Oman/Dubai average widened to $2/bbl, the lowest since June 2020, while the halt in Iranian exports removes an estimated 1.0-1.5 mb/d of Middle East sour supply. We argue the pricing anchor for the seven re-export grades is shifting from differential bargaining to a freight-plus-reliability premium.