1. Tape: geopolitical repricing
On Sep 8 crude rallied sharply. Per CLS / Eastmoney, WTI rose 2.13% to $93.43/bbl and Brent +1.10% to $98.07, intraday spiking to $98.78. Catalyst: multiple Saudi energy facilities were hit; Houthi threatened deep strikes inside Saudi; Hormuz transit risk re-escalated.
2. Three-layer pricing (Basrah)
① OSP layer: SOMO lifted Sep Asia OSP differentials vs Aug — Medium -$4.00/bbl to Oman/Dubai avg (was -$6.50), Heavy -$7.30/bbl (was -$8.80); i.e. seller discount narrowed, buyer delivered cost up.
② Spot discount/premium layer: Hormuz delivery-risk premium pushed spot stronger. Kpler: SOMO sold Sep–Oct Basrah Medium/Heavy at Dubai +$10/bbl+ delivered equivalent; STS near Fujairah ~Dubai +$5–8/bbl, up vs a week earlier.
③ Loading premium mechanism: Sep tender loading premium is tiered by decade — 1–10th ≥$0.20, 11–30th ≥$3.00/bbl (FOB STS transfer), stacked on FOB. Buyers must net OSP diff + spot discount/premium + loading premium into landed cost.
3. Net-back estimate
| Item | Medium ($/bbl) | Heavy ($/bbl) |
|---|---|---|
| Oman/Dubai avg (est.) | 96.00 | 96.00 |
| OSP differential | -4.00 | -7.30 |
| Loading premium (11–30th) | +3.00 | +3.00 |
| Est. equivalent (excl. STS spot premium) | ≈95.00 | ≈91.70 |
Versus spot STS Dubai +$5–8, physical premium has clearly detached from official prices, reflecting safe-haven bids and freight/insurance risk.
4. Practical notes
① Structure is geopolitics-led; intraday swings are large — use live prints. ② Narrowing Medium/Heavy diffs raise term cost; re-check arbitrage landed margin. ③ Sources: Argus Media, chemicalsupdates (MidEast Sour Crude Daily), Reuters, Jin10/Huitong. Values updating — subject to latest.
Sources: Argus Media / chemicalsupdates / Reuters / Jin10 / Huitong, compiled by SNSUC Research Institute. For reference only — not investment advice.
