Three-tier pricing read

1. OSP list price. For September-loading cargoes to Asia, Iraq's SOMO set Basrah Medium at a -$4.00/b discount and Basrah Heavy at a -$7.30/b discount to the Oman/Dubai average, sharply narrower than August's -$6.50 and -$8.80 respectively. The tighter discount (stronger seller value) reflects Iraq's upward pricing amid share competition and geopolitical risk (source: SOMO notice, chemicalsupdates, Reuters).

2. Spot term rebate. August term rebate reference: Medium 25–29.80 $/b, Heavy 27.80–29.80 $/b (data updating, subject to latest). Stacked on the OSP, Basrah Medium's net delivered discount to Oman/Dubai is roughly -$29 to -$34/bbl, implying an FOB net price near 82–88 $/bbl (Oman/Dubai ~$115/bbl).

3. Loading premium & STS mechanism. September tenders for liftings outside Hormuz set floors: 1–10 Sept ≥$0.20/b and 11–30 Sept ≥$3.00/b premium over destination benchmark (offshore STS transshipment, +30% conversion). Rerouting and transshipment costs directly lift delivered cost.

Macro & geopolitics

On Sep 28, front-month Brent settled around $105.9/bbl (+1.7%) and WTI around $93.4/bbl (+1.2%). The move followed Trump's rejection of Iran's proposal to end the conflict and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, repricing supply risk. Tehran holds firm on reopening terms; Fars reported strikes on vessels using unauthorized routes, while Trump claimed a 'record amount' of oil left the strait Saturday night. Saudi crude through Hormuz recovered above 4 mb/d in September (from a 2.4 mb/d August low, the weakest since 2013) after Houthi strikes on the East-West pipeline forced rerouting back through the strait.

Practical notes

Visible Hormuz traffic remains extremely thin — Kpler shows only 12 vessels over the Sep 20–21 weekend (vs 35 the prior weekend and a ~125/day pre-war baseline), with VLCCs near standstill and most physical barrels moving with AIS transponders off. Chinese refiners (Rongsheng, Shenghong, CNPC, etc.) locking September Basrah volumes should fold the STS premium and war-risk insurance/freight into delivered cost. Figures per Argus / chemicalsupdates / Reuters / Jin10; this watch is not investment advice.