On 29 September 2026, oil rose for a second straight session as Middle East supply risk and export recovery pulled in opposite directions. Per Reuters/CNA, by 0002 GMT Brent front-month gained 63 cents (+0.6%) to $105.91/bbl and WTI rose 72 cents (+0.8%) to $93.32/bbl; in early Gulf trade (10:19 Beijing) Brent neared $106.80 (+1.4%) and WTI ~$93.50. The dominant theme remains the tug-of-war between Hormuz not fully reopened and exports rebounding via STS diversions.

1. Three-layer pricing

① OSP (SOMO September, Asia): Basrah Medium set at a -$4.00/bbl discount to the Oman/Dubai average (vs -$6.50 in August, narrowing $2.50); Basrah Heavy at -$7.30/bbl (vs -$8.80, narrowing $1.50). Regional split is wide: Europe at -$4.85 to Dated Brent, Americas at +$5.10 to ASCI, Asia stays discounted to defend share. Source: SOMO / Argus / chemicalsupdates.

② Spot term discount: the OSP is only the headline start. Because Hormuz is constrained, August–September physical deals cleared $25–30/bbl below OSP (Medium ~25–29.80, Heavy ~27.80–29.80, data updating). This is the real cost of Iraq buying tankers back with per-barrel concessions.

③ Loading premium (September non-Hormuz cargoes): 1–10 day laycans ≥$0.20, 11–30 day ≥$3.00/bbl, delivered via offshore STS; long-haul buyers absorb an extra STS +30% freight/insurance add-on.

2. Net-to-arrive calculation

For Medium: OSP discount -$4.00 plus spot term -$25 to -$30 plus war-risk freight ~-$17 yields a net-to-arrive of roughly -$29 to -$34/bbl (FOB net price ~$82–88/bbl). Iraq's export volumes have recovered (August ~2.3 mb/d) but per-barrel revenue is still eaten by freight and risk premia — H1 2026 oil revenue nearly halved year-on-year.

3. Hormuz & practical notes

Windward data shows 21 vessel transits through Hormuz on 26 September (13 in, 8 out, 9 with AIS off) — well off single-digit lows but still ~83% below the pre-war ~125/day baseline; crude outflow hit 19.0 mb on 24 September (~12.2 mb via STS). Kpler puts September Middle East crude exports at 12.8 mb/d (highest since February), with Saudi crude via the strait back above 4 mb/d in September. Geopolitically, Washington rejected Iran's reopen Hormuz within 7 days proposal and US-Iran talks via mediators are weighing a revised 7-day plan; the same day Houthi fired six ballistic missiles at Taif and Yanbu (all intercepted), keeping Red Sea pressure live.

Practical note: Chinese refiners (Rongsheng, Shenghong, CNPC) can keep locking September–October Basrah Medium/Heavy, but must book the STS premium (≥$3.00 +30%) and war-risk insurance into landed cost; the -$29 to -$34 net-to-arrive band is the real executable anchor. Watch the Hormuz authorised corridor and the dual Bab al-Mandeb chokepoint — any loosening will rapidly compress the term discount.