[SNSUC Crude Watch] Basrah Medium OSP -$4.00, Heavy -$7.30 vs Oman/Dubai; combined net-to-delivery ~-$29 to -$34/b

International crude fell sharply on Sep 30: Brent Nov settled at $102.59/b (-2.56%), WTI at $89.38/b (-3.48%). SOMO set September Asia OSP at Basrah Medium -$4.00 and Heavy -$7.30 vs Oman/Dubai (raised $1.50-2.50 from August); combined with spot term discounts, Medium's net-to-delivery stands at ~-$29 to -$34/b. Hormuz transit stays low but total Middle East exports rebounded to 16.328 mb/d in September.

2026-09-30· 5 min· By: SNSUC Research Institute

On Sep 30, international crude fell sharply as mixed US-Iran negotiation signals met recovering Middle East supply. The Brent November contract settled at $102.59/b, down 2.56%; WTI November settled at $89.38/b, down 3.48% (China Fund / Wall Street CN). Brent briefly rebounded to $103.73 in early trade after Trump denied easing Iran sanctions, but closed lower.

1. OSP table price: SOMO September Asia differentials

Iraq's SOMO set September-loading Asia OSP: Basrah Medium at a -$4.00/b discount to the Oman/Dubai average (vs -$6.50 in August), Basrah Heavy at -$7.30/b (vs -$8.80), i.e. raised by $1.50-2.50/b month-on-month (Reuters / chemicalsupdates).

2. Spot discount layer: distressed in-strait cargoes vs normal STS delivery

Normal STS Fujairah deliveries into Asia have recently cleared at a Dubai +$5-13/b premium (Hormuz risk premium). Distressed cargoes forced to load inside the strait were tendered at Oman/Dubai -$25 to -$29.80/b (Argus, August). Current term-discount reference: Medium $25-29.80, Heavy $27.80-29.80/b (data updating, subject to latest).

3. Loading premium mechanism (non-Hormuz liftings)

September tender loading premium: day 1-10 ≥ $0.20, day 11-30 ≥ $3.00/b, with an additional +30% STS offshore-transshipment mechanism.

4. Net-to-delivery calculation

Basrah Medium = OSP (-$4.00) + term discount (~$25-29.80) → combined net-to-Oman/Dubai of about -$29 to -$34/b. At today's Oman/Dubai ~$99/b, Medium FOB net price is roughly $65-70/b (drifting lower with Brent).

5. Practical notes

Hormuz: week of Sep 7-13 averaged 118 transits (63 laden) but remained volatile; still far below the pre-war ~125 vessels/day. Total Middle East exports rebounded to 16.328 mb/d in September (highest since the war began).
Saudi restarted the East-West pipeline and resumed Yanbu (Red Sea) loadings on Sep 29, reducing reliance on the strait.
Trump denied easing Iran sanctions while Qatar mediates; Houthis hold Perim Island at Bab al-Mandeb, pressuring the Red Sea alternative.
Chinese refiners (PetroChina / Sinochem) keep winning spot tenders; SOMO Sep-Oct cargoes cleared at delivered Dubai +$10/b or above.

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