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[SNSUC Crude Watch] Basrah Medium/Heavy Nov OSP Deepens (Medium -2.80, Heavy -5.80); Spot Dark Discount -34~-37; Hormuz Still ~70% Constrained
Iraq's SOMO set November Asia OSP: Basrah Medium at -2.80/bbl to Oman/Dubai (flat in Oct), Heavy widened to -5.80/bbl (Oct -3.30), following Saudi's market-share defense. Recent loading cargoes show FOB spot dark discounts of ~-34.50 (Medium) and ~-37.00 (Heavy). Hormuz transit remains ~70% below pre-war; war-risk hull premium 6%–10%, single-VLCC surcharge up to $20M. Chinese independents continue locking 12–20 mb of Basrah Medium/Heavy and Al-Shaheen for Oct–Nov to replace lost Iranian barrels.
2026-10-21· 5 min· By: SNSUC Research Institute
1. Three-Layer Pricing Breakdown
1. OSP official price: SOMO (Oct 8) set November Asia OSP: Basrah Medium at a discount to Oman/Dubai; Basrah Heavy widened further, reflecting broader market-share defense. The cut follows Saudi's November Arab Light to Asia at -5.00 (largest discount since 2020), a shared market-share defense.
2. Spot dark discount (term rebate): Recent loading cargoes show FOB dark discounts deepened amid geopolitical tensions and fleet constraints. Loading premium +30% mechanism: Non-Hormuz loadings (1–10th ≥0.20, 11–30th ≥3.00/bbl) plus offshore STS transfer lift delivered cost further.
2. Against the Oman/Dubai average, Basrah Medium FOB nets a significantly deeper discount than OSP alone; Heavy shows an even wider net discount. Adding freight, war risk (hull 6%–10%, single-VLCC surcharge up to $20M) and STS premium, delivered ICE Brent parity sits at +12–20/bbl — still the cheapest Middle East sour tier, yet absolute delivered cost is lifted by high Brent and war risk.
3. Hormuz: UKMTO's Oct 19 weekly report notes elevated maritime incident counts and reduced transits;霍尔木兹海峡通行数据不可用 per IMF PortWatch. Chinese refiners: Independents continue securing Basrah Medium/Heavy and Al-Shaheen for Oct–Nov at delivered premiums to ICE Brent; China's Iran imports declined substantially year-on-year, with Iran's exports to China falling to zero in September per JODI reporting.
