Three-layer pricing read

① OSP list price (SOMO official, announced Nov 9, vs Oman/Dubai average): Basra Medium at a -$8.80/bbl discount and Basra Heavy at -$11.80/bbl, each $6 deeper than November (Medium -$2.80 / Heavy -$5.80). This followed Saudi Aramco cutting December Arab Light to -$6.50/bbl (narrowest since May 2020); SOMO's Medium -$8.80 is deeper than Aramco's Arab Medium -$8.00, and Heavy -$11.80 deeper than Arab Heavy -$9.35. SOMO confirmed a standalone "Basra Medium" grade launching Jan 2027, split from current Basra Light (Light ~33° API, Medium ~29° API, akin to Qatar's Al-Shaheen).

② Spot extra discount (term dark discount, FOB): recent loading cargoes hold deep discounts — Medium around -$34.50, Heavy around -$37.00/bbl (deeper than pre-war) — to hedge freight and war risk. Offshore STS transfer still carries a loadport premium by layday (≥$0.20 for days 1–10, ≥$3.00 for days 11–30 FOB STS).

③ Net-back differential: net FOB ≈ OSP + spot dark discount → Medium ≈ -$43.30, Heavy ≈ -$48.80/bbl vs Oman/Dubai. Adding freight and war risk (~$21–26/bbl per-voyage friction), delivered-to-China cost is roughly ICE Brent +$10–13/bbl (narrowed from +$12–20 in October). Procurement should anchor on net delivered price, not the OSP list.

Supply & loadings: Iraq's October loadings rose to about 3.5 mb/d (from 2.65 in September), helped by a Ceyhan pipeline recovery; Gulf crude exports in October reached about 16.6 mb/d, close to the pre-war ~17.0.

Macro: Brent front-month around $92.07/bbl (-0.54%) and WTI around $86.44/bbl (-0.47%); markets are pricing geopolitical de-escalation while trend-following funds cut Brent longs, amplifying the slide. Abu Dhabi's Murban spot fell about 7.16% in a single session — a spot share-war signal stronger than the futures move.

Hormuz (Nov 11): Iran's IRGC said a third tanker hit a mine on an "unauthorised route" that day; a Navig8-managed tanker caught fire off Oman; UKMTO separately reported a tanker struck northeast of Limah; an oil slick has reached the Omani coast. Public shipping trackers count about 37 vessels attacked in October (the highest single month since the war began), and the IMO has confirmed over 130 incidents since late February. War-risk premiums jumped 5x to about 5% of hull value (from ~1% early in the month); freight-plus-insurance runs about 10x pre-war. The US still enforces its maritime blockade of Iranian ports. Trump deferred a new round of strikes on Iran; Qatar and Pakistan are mediating, but US–Iran remain far apart on the nuclear file, sanctions and the blockade.

Compliance note (Sanctions Red Line F8): Iran-origin barrels are outside SNSUC's tradable scope and are covered here only as Hormuz geopolitical news; Iraq's Basra series (SOMO, directly signable) remains a tradable supply source.

Practical note: in a deep-discount phase, buyers should lock the net delivered price and the benchmark-switch clause (the Jan-2027 Basra Medium standalone grade requires explicit sulphur-benchmark and differential continuity); war-risk and escort costs stay elevated, so delivered-price volatility comes mainly from freight and insurance, not the OSP list.