On September 1, 2026, the spread between domestic bitumen and fuel oil front-month futures reached CNY 1,146 per metric ton — the highest level since January 2026 (previous peak: CNY 1,132/t on Jan 12). The spread widened by CNY 59/t week-on-week (+5.1%), significantly exceeding its one-year average of CNY 892 ± 136/t. This expansion reflects a structural realignment, not transient noise. First, seasonal demand has shifted decisively: highway maintenance projects across East and North China entered full swing in early September, lifting bitumen apparent consumption by 12.7% w/w; tender prices for terminal users now range from CNY 4,980–5,020/t. Meanwhile, low-sulfur fuel oil (LSFO) exports faced headwinds after MOFCOM’s Q3 Phase II refined product export quotas omitted dedicated ship fuel allocations — resulting in an 8.3% y/y decline in bonded ship fuel exports in August. Second, supply-side misalignment intensified. As of August 30, average utilization at seven major Chinese bitumen producers stood at 68.3%, up 9.2 ppts from July’s average — driven by Zhenhai and Maoming refineries resuming full-capacity bitumen production post-maintenance. Conversely, fuel oil supply was constrained: the Brent-WTI spread narrowed to USD 4.40/bbl (from USD 4.72/bbl avg in August), reducing arbitrage incentives for Middle Eastern residue imports; additionally, customs clearance time for Russian M-100 fuel oil at Shandong independent refineries extended to 7.2 working days (vs. 5.4 days in August). Third, cross-market valuation reinforced the trend. Singapore’s MFO 380cst spot discount to Brent narrowed to USD 12.15/bbl (from USD 12.83/bbl on Aug 25), while East China bitumen gross refining margin versus Dubai crude rose to USD 89.6/t (from USD 72.3/t monthly avg). Notably, today’s spread exceeds last year’s comparable level (CNY 1,072/t) and breaches the historical 85th percentile threshold (CNY 1,120/t), signaling sustainable arbitrage opportunity. SNSUC Research Institute estimates that the all-in, post-tax gross margin for the ESPO crude → domestic refining → bitumen domestic sale chain stands at CNY 328/t — up CNY 47/t MoM — assuming USD/CNY 6.7222 and a 0.8% import agency fee. We recommend road construction firms prioritize bitumen pricing orders for early-September delivery; traders may consider initiating reverse spread trades (short bitumen + long fuel oil) once the spread breaches CNY 1,160/t to hedge against post-peak-season pullbacks.