On September 2, 2026, the global crude market exhibited a 'converging surface volatility but deepening structural divergence' pattern. The Brent–WTI spread narrowed to $4.77/bbl ($96.64–$91.87), the tightest in 21 trading days — down 10.3% from its August 15 peak of $5.32/bbl. As the most responsive real-time proxy for transatlantic geopolitical risk premium, this compression — coupled with the Brent OVX index falling to 28.4 (−1.2 pts/week) — signals tangible easing in marginal tensions across the Middle East and Black Sea regions. Importantly, the premium has not vanished but recalibrated: Brent now trades $1.82/bbl above its theoretical risk-free equilibrium (anchored to WTI plus inter-regional freight/insurance costs), down 25.7% from the late-August high of $2.45/bbl — a level deemed moderate and controllable. FX dynamics corroborate this view: USD/CNY settled at 6.7231 (+0.04%), maintaining modest appreciation but with markedly decelerated momentum (5-day average daily gain slowed from +0.07% to +0.04%). EUR/USD fell to 1.1577 (−0.13%), reflecting back-to-back sub-45 manufacturing PMIs in the Eurozone and reinforced market pricing of ECB rate hold — weakening external tailwinds for USD strength. Against this backdrop, fuel oil futures surged +5.64% to ¥4,024/ton — the sole SNSUC-tracked commodity posting >5% daily gain — driven not by supply shortage (Singapore floating storage rose +0.8% w/w), but likely by concentrated Q3-end bunker replenishment demand among Asian end-users — a short-term liquidity-driven move, not a fundamental reversal. Critically, this fuel oil rally failed to cascade into downstream derivatives: asphalt rose only +3.45%; base oil, paraffin, and petroleum coke all posted 0.00% change. This fragmentation underscores a multi-layered repricing: upstream risk premium receding; midstream distillates shifting toward regional arbitrage (e.g., ESPO’s shift from discount to premium vs. Brent reshapes forward pricing);while downstream remains constrained by domestic infrastructure utilization (national asphalt demand up +1.3% y/y in August, yet East China terminal off-take velocity flat MoM). SNSUC Research Institute recommends: importers lock in October cargoes within the $96.5–$97.0/bbl Brent range to hedge against potential Q4 geopolitical re-escalation. adopt a ‘small-step, fast-paced’ strategy for fuel oil procurement — no single price-fix exceeding 30% of monthly volume — to avoid chasing liquidity peaks; and initiate ESG carbon footprint pre-calculation ahead of the EU CBAM Phase II verification rollout effective October 2026.