Paraffin export is genuinely profitable right now. Export offers at ¥7,140/t, up 1.32% to a three-week high and ¥365/t above the Brent-implied theoretical cost—the margin is real. The drivers are hard: Europe started winter candle-wax procurement early, with inbound inquiries +28% WoW in the first September week; North America is restocking low-melt food-grade (52–54°C), and SNSUC platform FOB Ningbo paraffin orders hit 12,600 tons in early September, +19.4% YoY. Petroleum coke is the opposite picture: East China port stocks at 82.6%, second-highest of the year, just below July’s 83.1%. Three cargoes of Middle East high-sulfur coke (~280k tons) landed in late August, and aluminum smelter maintenance pushed procurement cycles out to 14.7 days. Two byproducts from the same delayed-coker sit at completely different economics—paraffin at 3.8% yield contributes ¥217/t margin, while coke at 18.2% yield ships at ¥2,980/t but nets just ¥39/t after freight and storage, under 18% of paraffin’s. Refineries are already shifting operations: paraffin reflux +0.4, coke volatile control loosened from 12.5% to 13.1%. Our call is blunt: lock the paraffin export FOB now—the premium holds through end-September; don’t take coke spot, use forward contracts plus inventory swaps to carry the position. For re-exporters, put paraffin’s full-lifecycle PCF (avg 0.82 kgCO₂e/kg) on-chain to speed up EUDR compliance.