Asphalt’s seasonal peak is winding down—no surprises. The front-month contract closed at ¥4,748/t, down three weeks straight and 3.5% off the mid-August high; the road-construction window is effectively shut. Nationwide expressway maintenance is 89.7% done, and East China surface overlay hit 94.2%—5.3 days ahead of last year—so the rigid procurement window is basically gone. Refiners read the room: utilization was cut to 62.3%, down 2.1 pts week-on-week and a three-month low. Output fell 1.7% WoW—classic “demand cools, I cut runs.” Shandong independent refiners’ margin narrowed to ¥213/t, another ¥47 drop, giving them zero incentive to push runs. Inventories aren’t building, but drawdown clearly slowed: total stocks across 12 ports at 1.248M tons, only 11.3k tons lower on the week—drawdown rate halved from 1.8%/wk to 0.9%/wk. Regionally it’s split: East China’s share rose to 43.6%, South China stalled on Typhoon Haishen, North China still draws 1.5%/wk on Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei restocking. East-slowing, South-stalled, North-stable. Playbook: contractors draw down contract inventories first, don’t rush to replenish; traders skip forward-month builds—imported asphalt lands at ¥4,810–4,840/t, still ¥62–92/t below domestic futures, so the arb window is shut. Watch two signals: post-rainy-season restocking in North China later this month, and October infrastructure bond disbursement.