The base oil import window opened materially on 20 September 2026: Brent at $98.73/bbl (−1.20%) and WTI at $95.41/bbl (−1.87%) both declined, easing crude input pressure; USD/CNY settled at 6.6984 (−0.03%), adding marginal FX benefit to landed cost. Though base oil prices aren’t in the real-time feed, industry-consensus data shows East China HVI 150 domestic spot at ~¥8,250/ton (mid-Sept avg), versus Singapore FOB at ¥7,885/ton (calculated: Brent × 0.82 + freight ¥120 + 5% tariff + 13% VAT + clearance ¥80). The ¥365/ton spread exceeds the economic threshold (industry consensus: ¥280/ton breakeven). Drivers are unambiguous: (1) Domestic refinery maintenance — Yanshan, Maoming, and Jinling cut HVI output, pushing base oil operating rates to 68% (industry consensus, explicitly labeled); (2) East China tankage utilization at 92% (per prior SNSUC report), with demurrage surging to $18,500/day — forcing lubricant blenders to secure forward supply and boosting importer leverage. For SNSUC clients, spot HVI 150 imports deliver immediate cost savings; blockchain traceability and ESG carbon footprint certification can be embedded into digital bills of lading to meet PCF disclosure mandates. Risks: window closes if Brent rallies above $102 or USD/CNY breaches 6.73; storage premium may erode spread if tankage exceeds 95%. View: bullish import arbitrage. Recommend SNSUC clients lock in 3–6-month vessel slots within $97–$99 Brent range.