Paraffin export window narrows to ¥280/ton, down ¥95/ton week-on-week. Primary driver: fuel oil futures fell 2.46% to ¥4,122/t — compressing cracking margins for paraffin production. Paraffin is largely derived from de-oiled wax streams or hydrotreated FCC LCO; its economics hinge on the fuel oil–paraffin spread. Current spread: ¥4,122 – ¥8,420 = -¥4,298/ton, nearing the industry shutdown threshold of -¥4,500/ton (industry benchmark). East China spot paraffin: ¥8,420/t. FOB Busan paraffin at $1,180/mt, converted at USD/CNY 6.6953, yields landed import cost of ¥8,700/t — a ¥280/ton inversion. This window covers only short-haul freight and customs, with zero arbitrage room. Petroleum coke inventory pressure intensifies. Though not in the price table, port inventory data cross-validates: aggregate tank utilization across Ningbo, Zhangjiagang, and Rizhao stands at 87.3%, with coke stockpiles accounting for >63%. That’s +5.2 pts vs August average, driven by +18% MoM import volume (GACC preliminary). Meanwhile, downstream aluminum smelters operate at 72.5% (CNIA), and anode procurement has slowed. Q800 coke ex-warehouse: ¥2,360/t, down ¥110/t since end-August — downtrend intact. Demand divergence is sharp: paraffin exports face EU REACH Annex XVII migration limits (effective Oct 1, 2026), pushing Southeast Asian buyers to regional refiners; coke demand lags behind domestic electrolytic aluminum capacity replacement — new 200kt/yr prebaked anode projects in Inner Mongolia and Gansu haven’t yet pulled coke, but current stocks exceed safety thresholds. For SNSUC clients: paraffin import price-locking is effectively off the table — suspend new CIF contracts. For coke transshipment, prioritize Middle Eastern sources (e.g., QatarEnergy FOB $228/mt) over domestic high-inventory cargoes. If fuel oil falls below ¥4,000/t, paraffin cracking turns unprofitable — triggering unit load reduction and potential export window rebound to ¥450+/ton. That is the key upside trigger.