Brent stood at $97.48/bbl and WTI at $92.34, a $5.15 Brent-WTI spread. U.S. Gulf cargoes are cheap on screen but carry freight to Asia, so Indian refiners price the full delivered-to-port book, not just the flat spread.

Expected Middle East sour maintenance and curbs push Indian refiners to substitutes: ESPO from the short Far East leg, Lula from the Middle East-South America route, Bonny Light from West Africa. The premium split across these three grades gives the procurement desk room to trade on delivered cost.

On the Asian premium, the euro was at 1.1391 per dollar and the dollar at 157.26 yen. Currency moves change the real cost of a dollar-priced parcel across buyers. India settles in dollars, China in yuan, so the same cargo lands at different prices by the fx gap alone.

The operational point: replacement parcels are security of supply, not cheap barrels. Until the curb lands, Indian refiners lock cracking margin on ESPO/Lula and swing back to Middle East sour when the premium spikes — the switch sits on delivered spread, not on the benchmark.