The FX board split today: USD/CNY held flat at 6.7050, but USD/JPY eased to 157.83 and USD/KRW dropped to 1352.2. The dollar was sideways against the yuan and soft against the yen and won — a divergence that stops a Northeast Asian refiner from running one straight line on its dollar book.

More direct than the spot rate is the cost of money. The dollar overnight funding rate (SOFR) stays high, so holding dollar-priced crude inventory burns real interest every day. Transit traders running STS transfers typically park lots of the seven grades — ESPO, Dubai, Oman, Urals, Basrah Light, Bonny Light, Lula — on vessels or shore tanks, and every day in hand adds a day of carry cost.

When funding cost climbs, the play shifts from hold for the rally to turn it fast. Stock that used to sit two weeks now moves in five days: turnover rises, per-ton margin thins, but capital efficiency improves. EUR/USD at 1.1245 and EUR/CNY at 7.5382 both firmed, so euro-settled transit deals shed part of the dollar leg and dodge some of the rate squeeze.

In short: the exchange rate decides which side you earn on, and the funding cost decides how long you can hold the barrel. Both now need a monthly recompute, not last year's carry calendar.