Paraffin export arbitrage window is live: USD/CNY flat at 6.7050, Brent up to $101.28/bbl and WTI above $90 lifted FOB paraffin to $1,185/t (+2.1% w/w), while domestic ex-works price stands at ¥8,250/t (+1.85%), translating to landed cost of ~$1,128/t — net arbitrage $57/t, covering Qingdao–Singapore freight ($32/t) and LC discounting ($8/t). SNSUC clients executed two offshore shipments totaling 18kt this week. Petcoke faces acute inventory pressure: no futures quote, but East China port stocks surged to 923kt (+4.7% w/w), highest in 14 months; aluminum smelter utilization holds at 87.2% (industry norm), yet alumina plants slowed procurement and Oman/Urals-blend imports rose 12.6% w/w — port utilization breached 86%. Concurrently, BITUMEN futures plunged 3.50% to ¥5,013/t, squeezing heavy-oil cracking margins and pushing Shandong refiners’ coke yield up to 18.3% (from 16.7%). Demand divergence reflects end-use misalignment: paraffin exports ride Southeast Asian packaging season + early Diwali restocking in India; petcoke domestic demand is constrained by tightening carbon quotas and aluminum production curbs, while exports face CBAM pre-screening expansion (new inclusion: carbon electrodes). Action: lock 100% Q4 paraffin purchases at $1,160–1,175/t; defer new petcoke orders until stocks fall below 880kt or Brent drops below $98. View anchored: petcoke arbitrage reopens only if Brent closes < $98.50 for 3 consecutive days.