China does not move retail gasoline and diesel ceilings on a single-day price; it keys them to a 10-working-day average. Inside that averaging window, Brent and WTI have each risen more than 4% over two sessions, which by the current linkage formula implies a gasoline and diesel increase of roughly 150–180 yuan/tonne at the next reset.

For refiners and traders there is a familiar pattern around the window: ahead of it, distributors tighten supply and push spot premiums, then once the change lands the withheld volume hits the market and spot can soften. Swap and bonded operators should note that the domestic reset expectation moves port duty-paid quotes, while bonded bunker fuel runs on a separate duty-free logic and is not directly pulled by the retail ceiling.

For SNSUC the effect shows up in two places: buyers whose downstream is duty-paid product will time purchases to the window, and our seven-product swap book anchors to Brent, a different line from the domestic retail ceiling — keep the two separate. One compliance note: operating permits for refined oil and price resets are distinct matters; every required license stays in place.