The bunker list of international transshipment vessels is getting longer. A call for "VLSFO" used to suffice; now, to meet IMO carbon rules, ship owners put methanol and LNG on the purchase order too. Fuel oil (4,529 yuan per tonne, +2.0%) still climbs, but a substitution variable now sits behind the demand curve.

For bonded bunkering hubs it cuts both ways: low-sulfur fuel oil stays dominant near term, with its premium propped by restocking; medium term, methanol and LNG take share, and suppliers must re-invest in tanks, bunker vessels and metering standards. If Zhoushan sets the multi-fuel bunkering standard first, it wins more than this year's vessel schedules — it wins the next three years of pricing power.

SNSUC's supply book is built on crude re-export, but bunkers are one downstream outlet of the seven-grade re-export chain. Watching this line means seeing early where three grades (ESPO, Dubai, Oman) flow after arrival: does the refinery's residue become VLSFO, or does it go to coking?

Operating takeaway: add a "green-fuel substitution elasticity" column to re-export arrival-profit models, so the VLSFO premium is not treated as a permanent floor.