The landed cost of base oil has risen—this figure is anchored to Brent crude at USD 110.122/bbl, the fuel oil import cost driven by tightening import quotas (published previously), and the current USD/CNY rate of 6.6781. For a typical Group III base oil import structure (including 12% tariff, 13% VAT, and 1.5% inspection & logistics), each USD 1/bbl increase in Brent lifts the RMB-denominated cost by approximately CNY 42/tonne; today’s Brent change of -1.36% corresponds to a downward adjustment of ~CNY 59/tonne. The import substitution window is narrowing: fuel oil front-month futures are trading at relatively low levels, while mainstream N350 spot quotes in East China remain elevated, resulting in a notably widened spread versus September’s average. This spread has exceeded the refinery economic blending threshold, prompting downstream lubricant blender facilities to accelerate shift toward bonded-zone imports of Group III base oil, with Q4 bonded inventory rising quarter-on-quarter. However, re-export momentum is constrained: ESPO crude re-exports declined this week, primarily due to extended maintenance at Far East Russian refineries and over-seven-day loading delays for Group III base oil at Kozmino port. RMB appreciation failed to offset cost pressure: USD/CNY dipped marginally by 0.07%, but Brent volatility remains the dominant driver of landed cost, rendering net cost impact limited. SNSUC’s blockchain carbon footprint service indicates that imported Group III base oil carries a unit carbon intensity of 0.82 tCO2e/tonne—0.31 tCO2e/tonne lower than domestic Group I—raising ESG premium weight in procurement criteria among East China end-users. Recommendation: Importers should monitor forward premiums for Group III base oil shipments scheduled in early November; re-exporters should defer procurement of ESPO-linked base oil pending confirmation of Kozmino port loading recovery post-November 5. View: Bullish on the domestic–import base oil price spread; reversal trigger thresholds are Brent falling below USD 104.20/bbl or N350 spot dropping below a key support level.