China's retail ceiling for gasoline and diesel does not follow a single day; it tracks a 10-working-day moving average. With Brent at $112.07 and WTI at $99.50 tonight, this round's average is pushed higher, and under the current rule an implied upward revision of roughly ¥120/t looks likely.

When the window opens, pump prices move with it. Bonded bunker fuel (VLSFO) is exempt: it sits outside both the retail-ceiling regime and the refined-oil excise, pricing off the Singapore 0.5% sulfur swap plus delivered premium. Domestic heavy oil and foreign-flag bunkering live in two separate pools.

For traders running re-export and bonded books, the line is sharp. The domestic leg's cost swing is governed by the NDRC window; the bonded leg is governed by international premiums. Keep the two off the same delivered-cost sheet, or the math drifts by a wide margin.

Among SNSUC's seven re-export grades, those routed through duty-paid domestic channels — fuel oil, bitumen — should bake the likely repricing into the delivered model early. The bonded and offshore grades still hinge on OSP, freight and premiums.