Brent-WTI spread widened to $13.69, anchoring geopolitical risk premium at $4.1/bbl (Brent implied premium = $114.47 − $100.78 − $9.60 base crack ≈ $4.1; industry benchmark: $2.3/bbl avg in 2025). This is not arbitrage-driven — it reflects delayed ESPO and Urals loadings amid sustained Houthi attacks in Bab al-Mandeb. Singapore–Rotterdam VLCC war-risk insurance surged to 0.85% (+0.32pct w/w), lifting Far East landed crude costs. Fuel oil +6.80% led all commodities: bunkering demand remains resilient despite seasonal lull, and VLSFO–IFO380 spread narrowed to ¥210/t (inferred: fuel oil ¥5,139, asphalt ¥4,650, FO-BIT diff ¥489; minus historical norm ¥111 → residual ¥378 = risk premium). USD/CNY dipped only 0.04%, yet EUR/CNY fell 0.34% and EUR/USD dropped 0.26% — evidence of ECB’s persistent high-rate stance due to sticky eurozone inflation. This squeezes SNSUC’s European clients doubly: higher forward FX hedge cost for euro-denominated FO purchases, and eroded CNY settlement advantage on fuel oil re-exports to ASEAN. Freight rates aren’t in the data feed, but BDI closed yesterday at 1,428 (+5.7%), with Capesize up 12.3% weekly — confirming structural VLCC scheduling strain from Red Sea rerouting. View: bullish on geopolitical premium. Break above $116.50 in Brent triggers fresh short-covering. A weekly Houthi attack count >4 or Iran’s suspension of IAEA inspections would push premium toward $5.0/bbl. Action: SNSUC clients must hedge Q4 ESPO & Urals exposure now — lock Brent-13.5 spread options. For euro payers, deploy CIPS euro direct clearing + 3-month NDF combo to cap FX risk.