At the close, front-month fuel oil sits at ¥5,262/t against bitumen at ¥4,869/t, leaving fuel oil at a ¥393/t premium to bitumen. That gap is not a standalone number, it reflects how refiners reallocate residue yield.

With the road-construction window shutting, bitumen offtake softens, and refiners push vacuum residue harder into the VLSFO marine-bunker route. After IMO2020 capped sulphur at 0.5%, the low-sulphur bunker premium over high-sulphur holds, and bonded-bunker demand is steadier than coking-feed demand.

For SNSUC's transshipment book, a fuel-oil premium means the same barrel of crude spreads across different downstream outlets. On our thirteen-category live board we track fuel oil, bitumen, petroleum coke and paraffin on one heavy-oil curve; when one outlet's premium widens, the warehouse-receipt financing shifts toward it.

Near term, bitumen social stocks keep drawing but apparent consumption weakens, while fuel oil is underpinned by steady bunker demand. As long as FO-BIT holds above ¥300/t, routing residue to VLSFO beats routing it to bitumen.