Tight tankage utilization in East China represents the hardest operational constraint—not a warning, but reality. Available storage capacity is significantly constrained, with remaining usable volume concentrated in high-maintenance tank farms (including nitrogen blanketing, temperature control, and double-wall structures), resulting in low practical unloading capability. Concurrently elevated demurrage rates directly confirm a material narrowing of berthing windows: a 30,000-metric-ton fuel oil vessel at Yangshan Port experiences extended waiting times and compressed loading/unloading schedules, compelling shipowners to accept premium berth bookings. This is not seasonal volatility, but structural pressure: In August 2026, China’s crude oil imports stood at 8,956 kb/d and refinery throughput at 13,247 kb/d (JODI), underscoring persistent imbalances between supply inflows and processing capacity that amplify storage stress. Fuel oil futures rose to CNY 5,500/t, and asphalt futures to CNY 5,101/t; their closely aligned gains suggest that storage-related costs are uniformly elevating regional spot holding costs across product categories. Although USD/CNY reached 6.6660—a yearly high—the currency appreciation failed to offset rigid logistics expenditures: For fuel oil, USD-denominated cost declined by 0.85% (WTI down 0.85%, per public market interface), yet CNY-denominated cost rose by 3.68%, with the full net cost pressure absorbed by storage and demurrage expenses. For SNSUC customers, re-export operational windows have narrowed: A planned Ningbo–Busan–Singapore triangular arbitrage has been rerouted via Qingdao due to East China unloading constraints, increasing freight cost per tonne, raising loss-on-handling rates, and adding to carbon footprint calculations. Critically, under highly constrained tankage, any unexpected clustering of arrivals risks cascading rejection events, delaying bonded warehouse receipt issuance and impairing T+0 blockchain-backed pledge functionality. Upside risk threshold: Further tightening of tankage or sustained elevation in demurrage rates would widen spot premiums for all major oil products in East China. Downside catalyst: A new 300,000-m³ bonded tank facility in Jiangsu enters trial operation on 15 November, though first receipts are scheduled only from early December. SNSUC importers are advised to immediately activate ‘tankage swap agreements’—exchanging East China positions for lower-utilization capacity in South China to lock in demurrage exposure; re-exporters should suspend all non-urgent East China port calls and prioritize offshore delivery against already issued warehouse receipts.
SNSUC上海新壳联化工有限公司
SNSUC Research · Research · Market
East China Tankage Tightness and Elevated Demurrage Pressure Regional Arbitrage Economics
East China tankage tightness and elevated demurrage rates indicate that storage constraints have transmitted to spot premiums; fuel oil and asphalt prices rose in tandem, reflecting broad-based increases in regional holding costs. The strengthening of USD/CNY failed to offset rigid logistics expenses, materially weakening the economics of short-haul re-export operations.
China Crude Oil Imports
8956kb/d
— Flat
China Refinery Throughput
13247kb/d
— Flat
WTI Crude Price
101.51USD/bbl
▼ Down
Fuel Oil Futures
5500CNY/t
▲ Up
Asphalt Futures
5101CNY/t
▲ Up