Japan’s crude import structure has settled into a 'high-dependency, low-flexibility' regime: JODI data for Aug 2026 shows imports at 2.492 MBD, refinery input at 2.349 MBD, yielding a net inventory build of 143 kb/d — equivalent to a 0.05% monthly increase against an ending stock of 272,336 MB. This spread has held within ±150 kb/d for three consecutive months, confirming tight synchronization between refinery runs and vessel arrivals — no aggressive stocking or drawdown. While JODI does not break out Middle East share, industry consensus holds it above 90% long-term — sourced primarily from Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar, and Iraq; SNSUC’s core transshipment grades (ESPO, Dubai, Oman) all transit the Strait of Hormuz. AIS visibility at Hormuz has been persistently interrupted since Mar 1, 2026 (historical norm ~49 vessels/day), but this reflects signal loss — not cargo disruption. Real flows remain verifiable via satellite, bills of lading, and port call records; no supply interruption is evident. Malacca Strait at 89 vessels/day (vs. 30-day avg 73.2) and Tsushima Strait at 43 vessels/day (vs. avg 53.2, norm 63) confirm Japan’s main shipping lanes remain unimpeded. Refined product stocks reinforce this processing logic: kerosene at 20,523 MB (19.6% of total refined stocks), gasoil at 17,464 MB (16.7%), together accounting for 36.3% — far exceeding gasoline (12,991 MB, 12.4%) and jet fuel (4,774 MB, 4.6%). This signals winter heating and industrial fuel-driven refinery runs. Fuel oil +2.13% and asphalt +3.34% — both outperforming Brent (-1.38%) and WTI (-1.19%) — confirm Japanese buyers are shifting from cost-driven to seasonally driven procurement. USD/JPY at 157.98 pressures JPY-denominated costs, but RMB-based imports (e.g., fuel oil, asphalt) see partial offset from USD/CNY’s -0.04% dip. View: Bullish near-term procurement window for Japanese fuel oil and asphalt. Reversal trigger: Brent < $105 AND Japanese refined product stocks rise >5,000 MB MoM.