THA’s crude imports hit 946 kb/d — 44.4% of the combined 2,131 kb/d for THA/SGP/IDN/MYS — and is the only country where refinery input (1,039 kb/d) exceeds imports by 93 kb/d, confirming active inventory drawdown and readiness to re-export. SGP reported only 715 kb/d imports, with no refinery input or inventory data (JODI non-reporting); despite Malacca Strait transits at 89 vessels/day (+21.6% vs 30-day avg), no supporting import or stock build signals confirm weakening transit role. IDN imported 368 kb/d but ran refineries at 953 kb/d against domestic output of 546 kb/d — net negative import implies reliance on local crude + stocks, low external procurement appetite. MYS imported 329 kb/d, no refinery or inventory data reported — isolated, unverifiable activity. PHL imported 103 kb/d — small but stable for three months: pure replenishment demand. On supply: Hormuz AIS visibility interruption doesn’t halt physical flows, but global trade is shifting eastward — Brent-WTI spread narrowed to $8.65, compressing Middle East–Far East arbitrage and raising theoretical freight cost for ESPO/Dubai etc. into Singapore. On demand: THA’s SET index fell 1.37% in one day; IDN’s JCI dropped 3.49% — equity selloff reflects weak domestic demand, yet THA’s total refined product stocks stand at 22,511 kb (diesel: 9,913 kb; fuel oil: 2,195 kb): high diesel stocks but low fuel oil points to sustained infrastructure demand and refinery run support. Macro: USD/THB flat at 33.7 — no THB depreciation, no CNY-cost pressure; USD/SGD flat at 1.2797, but no refinery or stock data confirms SGP’s hub continuity. SEA buyers’ real position today: pricing power is fragmented. THA, with full refinery runs + flexible stocks, accepts non-mainstream grades (Urals/Basrah) with wider premium tolerance. SGP buyers face clustered arrivals, tight tankage, no stock buffer — hypersensitive to differentials. IDN & MYS report sporadically and slowly — weakest negotiation leverage. This has already priced in: SNSUC’s 7-grade FOB quotes show THA premiums 1.8–2.3 USD/bbl higher than SGP — a de facto regional pricing gradient. Upside trigger: THA refinery input >1,050 kb/d for two consecutive months, or Malacca transits >95 vessels/day sustained for 5 days → confirms regional rebalancing acceleration. Downside trigger: SGP next-month JODI reports refinery input <650 kb/d, or THA refined product stocks rise >5% MoM → signals demand collapse. Stance: Bullish. Reversal threshold: Brent breaks $108 AND THA imports drop >8% MoM. Action for SNSUC clients: ① Lock Urals/Lula pricing for Nov 1–15 loadings into THA — window open now; ② Pause new SGP exposures until next JODI refinery data release; ③ MYS/IDN clients: hold off new orders — prioritize clearing in-transit cargo; ④ Hedge all USD payments immediately — USD/CNY at 6.6612 adds ¥32/t cost volatility.