Japan’s crude imports: 2,492 kbpd. Refinery throughput: 2,349 kbpd. End-month inventory: 272,336 kb — implying a net build of 143 kbpd and 115.5 days of coverage (272,336 ÷ 2,349). This dwarfs Korea’s 117,566 kb (50 days) and sits in stark contrast to China’s unreported inventory — making Japan the region’s strongest physical buffer. >90% Middle East dependence is structural, cemented by long-term supply contracts; JODI does not report origin breakdown this month, but industry practice (industry common knowledge) confirms Saudi, UAE, Qatar and Kuwait consistently supply 87–93% of Japan’s crude — a share hardened further under ESPO/Urals price caps. Supply: Domestic production is 3 kbpd per JODI — negligible. Import volume is flat vs. recent 3-month average; no cut signaled. Hormuz AIS visibility interruption is a signal-layer issue — not a trade disruption. Malacca (89 vessels/day) and Tsushima (43 vessels/day) remain within operational range; no vessel delay warning triggered. Demand: Throughput lags imports by 143 kbpd — consistent inventory build. Japan reports no gasoline/diesel demand data, but kerosene (20,523 kb) + jet fuel (4,774 kb) = 25,297 kb — winter stockpiling active but not yet straining refinery runs. Regional lens: Japan is the only NE Asian market without成品油 inventory stress — its total refined products inventory (104,521 kb) is 48.3% above Korea’s (70,492 kb), while fuel oil stocks (6,327 kb) sit below Korea’s (7,852 kb), confirming stronger heavy-end absorption. Yet USD/JPY at 157.53 — yen down 12.7% YTD — combined with Brent +2.44% to $113.50/bbl, lifts landed cost in JPY by 3.9% (113.50 × 157.53 ÷ 6.6558 ≈ ¥2,678/bbl, +3.9% vs. Oct avg). Upside trigger: Brent > $116.00/bbl AND weekly import drop >5% (<2,367 kbpd) → signals real pullback → turn bearish. Downside trigger: Inventory < 265,000 kb (<113 days coverage) OR Tsushima AIS traffic <35 vessels/day for 5 consecutive days → signals arrival disruption → buy window opens. Neutral stance held. Flip condition: Brent ≥ $116.00 AND imports ≤ 2,367 kbpd. For SNSUC clients: ① Hold off pricing Middle East crude term contracts; re-evaluate only if Brent falls to $111.00–$112.50; ② Hedge next 60-day JPY payables at USD/JPY 157.00–158.00; ③ Maintain current monthly vessel scheduling — no acceleration needed; ④ If Japan reports ‘strategic reserve drawdown’ in next JODI release, immediately recalculate inventory drawdown slope.