Southeast Asia’s refining geography is restructuring: Thailand’s refinery input (1039 kb/d) exceeds its crude imports (946 kb/d) by 93 kb/d — implying inventory draw or structural import optimization. Thailand has shifted from pure importer to net regional processor, with capacity to export refined products. Singapore’s crude imports (715 kb/d) are just 68.7% of Thailand’s daily refinery input; no refinery input data reported for Singapore (JODI blank), confirming its re-export role is materially eroding. Indonesia’s refinery input (953 kb/d) outstrips domestic production (546 kb/d) and imports (368 kb/d) by 39 kb/d — indicating tight inventory buffers and high utilization. Malaysia and Philippines report only 329/103 kb/d imports, no refinery input disclosed: pure end-consumption profiles. On supply: total crude imports across five countries = 2461 kb/d. But only Thailand and Indonesia show active refining (1992 kb/d combined). The remaining 469 kb/d flow to undisclosed refineries or strategic top-ups. On demand: Thailand’s distillate-heavy product stocks (diesel = 44.0% of 22,511 kb total) signal infrastructure-driven consumption. Inventory-wise: Thailand’s 24,367 kb crude stock covers just 23.4 days vs. industry-standard safety buffer (30–45 days) — real tank-tightness exists. Vs global norms: Thailand’s refinery input/import ratio = 1.097 — far above typical importing nations (≤1.02). Singapore’s import/re-export ratio is undefined (no JODI re-export metric), but its 715 kb/d import is below Malaysia’s implied refining need (~450–500 kb/d based on 329 kb/d import), confirming its imports serve bunkering & offshore storage — not refining. For SNSUC clients: Thailand’s landed window is now optimal — Brent down 2.73% to $110.34, USD/CNY at 6.6550 cuts RMB cost by ~1.8%, and high refinery runs ensure faster spot price response and stable premiums. Upside trigger: Thailand refinery input >1080 kb/d (+4.0%) OR Malacca Strait AIS traffic >95 vessels/day for 5 consecutive days → widen regional processing premium. Downside trigger: Singapore crude imports <650 kb/d OR Indonesia refinery input drops >50 kb/d → signals demand collapse. Stance: Bullish — but strictly for Thailand-anchored procurement and Singapore short-term arbitrage. Flip to neutral if Brent >$113.50 AND USD/CNY >6.68. Actionable for SNSUC clients: ① Thai buyers: initiate Dec asphalt/fuel oil pricing now — high refinery runs boost spot liquidity; ② Singapore re-exporters: lift 3–5 parcels of low-sulfur fuel oil on-the-spot — bunker demand remains structurally firm; ③ All clients: lock Dec USD payments at USD/CNY <6.66; ④ Pause long-term exposure to Indonesia until next JODI reports refinery inventory data.