Bitumen futures fell 0.63% to ¥4,558/t — the second-largest decline among SNSUC’s 13 tracked petroleum commodities, trailing only natural rubber (-1.00%). This reflects a seasonal demand rupture: the road construction peak is now past its midpoint, yet social stock drawdown has not gained traction. JODI data shows combined refined product stocks for Japan, Korea, India and the US in August 2026 totaled 1,045,210 + 70,492 + 95,989 + 591,678 = 1,803,369 kbbl. Heavy-end fractions — highly correlated with bitumen feedstock — sit at low absolute levels (Singapore fuel oil: 6,327 kbbl; Korea: 7,852 kbbl), indicating elevated refinery runs on residue, but downstream absorption remains sluggish. China’s refinery throughput stands at 13,247 kbpd — nearly triple domestic crude output (4,353 kbpd) — confirming ample secondary processing capacity. Yet bitumen prices weaken, signaling weak terminal procurement. Road paving is geographically and climatically constrained: temperatures across East and North China have fallen below 15°C since early November, materially narrowing the viable paving window. South China remains operational, but JODI does not report China’s refined product stocks by grade, leaving domestic social inventory pressure unverifiable. By comparison, Japan’s gasoline (12,991 kbbl) and diesel (17,464 kbbl) stocks exceed Korea’s (8,752 / 16,889 kbbl), highlighting regional product structure divergence — yet bitumen, as a non-standardized product, lacks high-frequency inventory tracking. Its drawdown momentum hinges on infrastructure fund disbursement timing and local catch-up construction intensity — both remain muted ahead of Q4 fiscal spending peaks. For SNSUC’s transshipment clients, current import cost is locked at ¥4,558/t. If East China temperatures drop below 10°C post-mid-November, spot discounts may widen further — delay new forward purchases and prioritize clearing in-transit cargo. For clients holding bitumen warehouse receipts, consider partial profit-taking above ¥4,600/t. View unchanged unless bitumen futures break and hold above ¥4,700/t for two consecutive sessions.