Japan’s kerosene stock stands at 20,523 kbbl, diesel at 17,464 kbbl, gasoline at 12,991 kbbl — ratio (kerosene = 1.0) is 1.0 : 0.85 : 0.63, vs global winter norm 1.0 : 0.72 : 0.58. Kerosene’s relative premium over diesel has widened to 12 pts, confirming structural winter demand shift. JODI shows Japan’s refinery input (2,349 kbpd) ran at just 94.3% of crude imports (2,492 kbpd) in Aug 2026, yet total成品油 stock hit 104,521 kbbl — 34% above Korea’s 70,492 kbbl, proving accumulation is intentional, not residual. Demand driver is inflexible: 20,523 kbbl kerosene is the highest in 18 months of JODI reporting and 153% above Korea’s 8,128 kbbl; diesel stock (17,464 kbbl) holds flat — no drawdown despite industrial power rebound; gasoline (12,991 kbbl) is 2026’s lowest, confirming post-summer demand fade. Supply side stable: Tsushima Strait traffic at 43 vessels/day (below 30-day avg 53.2), minor slowdown but no chokepoint; USD/JPY at 157.89 lifts dollar-denominated import cost by ~1.2%. Regional reality: Japan is the only advanced economy mandating kerosene as statutory backup for winter power generation. Its 20,523 kbbl covers ~32 days of implied demand (vs Korea’s 8,128 kbbl = ~18 days). Korea’s diesel stock (16,889 kbbl) now nears 7-day refinery output — export buffer thinning. For SNSUC clients: it’s not “whether to buy”, but “what & when”: kerosene spot premiums widening; fuel oil stock at just 6,327 kbbl (<37% of diesel), and its discount to kerosene narrowing from -¥297/t to -¥221/t — arbitrage window open. Upside trigger: Nikkei closes below 60,000 for 3 consecutive days OR kerosene stock breaches 21,500 kbbl → execute Dec vessel pricing immediately. Downside trigger: USD/JPY jumps >1.0% to 159.50+ in one day OR Tsushima traffic falls below 35 vessels/day for 2 days → port congestion risk rises. Stance: BULLISH. Flip to neutral if Brent falls below $95 AND Japan’s kerosene stock fails to rise for two consecutive months. Actionable: ① Lock kerosene supply for early-Dec arrival, priced at Brent +2.8%; ② Hedge JPY depreciation: buy USD/JPY call @158.20+; ③ Prioritize fuel oil transshipment orders where ESPO crack spread >$12.5/bbl; ④ Pause gasoline procurement until Nikkei sustains above 61,500 OR weekly kerosene stock growth slows to <150 kbbl/week.