USGC crude exports show no acceleration—the bottleneck isn’t chokepoints but refinery procurement mismatch: Yucatan Strait AIS vessel count at 30/day exceeds both 30-day avg (28.53) and historical norm (23); yet JODI shows US refinery input (17,400 kbpd) exceeds domestic production (13,850 kbpd) by 3,550 kbpd—meaning USGC exports rely on arbitrage or third-party cargoes, not domestic surplus. Loading pace is driven by offshore traders’ vessel scheduling, not refinery offtake urgency. On supply: Canada’s production (4,461 kbpd) dwarfs its refinery input (1,286 kbpd), leaving 3,175 kbpd theoretical surplus—but JODI doesn’t report Canada-US flows, so actual availability to USGC is unconfirmed. Mexico produces 1,674 kbpd, refines 1,217 kbpd, but its total refined product inventory stands at only 18,032 kb (July), indicating tight tankage and limited export capacity. On demand: US gasoline (157,374 kb) and diesel (79,896 kb) inventories account for 40.1% of total refined products (591,678 kb)—neutral, no restocking signal. Macro: DJIA -3.44%, Nasdaq -5.52%; risk-off pressure suppresses oil longs. WTI external quote +0.98%, but $91.58/bbl settlement trades $8.25 under Brent—arbitrage window remains closed. North American buyers face a squeeze: USD/CAD at 1.4009 (-0.04%) implies rising landed cost for Canadian crudes into USGC; meanwhile, WTI vs fuel oil futures spread has narrowed—$91.58/bbl WTI vs ¥4,304/t fuel oil = ~$85.4/bbl equivalent—cracking margins eroded, dampening near-term buying appetite. North America is the only major region where refinery input persistently exceeds domestic output *without* commensurate import growth—imports stand at just 6,709 kbpd, far below the 3,550 kbpd deficit plus import capacity. Upside trigger: WTI-Brent spread narrows to <$6.5/bbl *and* Yucatan sustains ≥32 vessels/day for 5 consecutive days. Downside trigger: US crude imports drop below 6,500 kbpd in a single month *or* WTI falls >2.5% in one day. Stance: Neutral. Shift to bearish if WTI breaks $88.00/bbl *or* US imports average <6,400 kbpd for two months. Actionable for SNSUC clients: ① Importers: pause pricing; resume December vessel inquiries only if WTI drops below $89.50/bbl; ② Traders: lock USD/CAD forward purchases above 1.4050 to hedge CAD strength; ③ USGC receivers: delay mid-to-late November vessel scheduling—Yucatan is at operational saturation, demurrage risk rising; ④ Watch condition: WTI-Brent spread ≤$7.0 *and* US weekly crude imports rebound to ≥6,800 kbpd.