Southeast Asia’s refining transit role has materially collapsed: SG (715 kb/d) + MY (329 kb/d) crude imports total 1,044 kb/d — just 98 kb/d above TH’s 946 kb/d alone. This isn’t structural optimization — it’s functional erosion. The traditional transit hubs no longer hold decisive scale over TH or ID. On supply: TH refiners input 1,039 kb/d vs. 946 kb/d imported → +93 kb/d net draw, confirming sustained off-take of external crude and support for high成品油 stocks (22,511 kb). ID refiners input 953 kb/d vs. 368 kb/d imported → +585 kb/d net draw, with domestic output at 546 kb/d. Their refineries run almost entirely on local crude + minimal imports — transit dependence near zero. MY imports 329 kb/d, with no refinery input or production reported (JODI non-submission), and its volume is only 89% of ID’s and 34.7% of TH’s — insufficient for scale-based transshipment. No demand catalyst: TH’s 22,511 kb成品油 stocks are elevated (diesel 9,913 kb; jet fuel 3,390 kb), with no accelerated drawdown visible. ID, MY, PH report no成品油 stocks — demand strength unverifiable. Macro-wise, IDX +2.25% and KLCI +1.19% signal domestic confidence, but not higher refinery procurement — JODI lags 30–60 days, while current pricing is hit by Brent +4.99%, lifting landed cost by ~3.2% (at USD/CNY 6.6687). Regional focus: SG’s 715 kb/d import is the core of Malacca traffic (89 vessels/day > 73.2 30-day avg), but AIS visibility ≠ destination — many are through-vessels. Real transit decay is in the import number itself: SG’s 7-month avg was ~820 kb/d; August fell to 715 kb/d (-12.8% m/m). TH held steady at 940–950 kb/d; ID at 360–375 kb/d. Procurement gravity is shifting from ‘port warehouse’ to ‘refinery tank’. Upside trigger: Malacca traffic >95 vessels/day for 5 consecutive days AND SG imports rebound to ≥780 kb/d → transit logic reactivates. Downside trigger: TH refinery input falls below 1,000 kb/d OR ID imports drop below 330 kb/d → local digestion hardens, SG-MY arbitrage window permanently narrows. Stance: bearish — transit premium is irreversibly eroding. Reversal threshold: Brent breaks $92 AND SG monthly import sustains ≥800 kb/d. Actionable for SNSUC clients: ① TH importers lock FO pricing for Dec laycan now — ¥4,310/t (+0.07%) is late-stage consolidation; ② SG transshippers pause LSFO restocking; wait for Brent ≤$95; ③ MY end-users defer Q1 2027 crude term contracts pending JODI refinery data resubmission; ④ All clients hedge USD/CNY — 6.6687 is near 3-month lows; execute layered hedges between 6.65–6.68.