Japan’s crude landed cost rose 2.9% intraday — driven solely by USD/JPY jumping +0.39% to 159.37. At this rate, Brent at $92.99/bbl translates into ¥2.9% higher yen-denominated cost, dwarfing the Nikkei’s +1.30% gain in procurement relevance. This is real cost pressure — not technical noise. FX dominates: Each +1 JPY move in USD/JPY adds ~¥112/t to Brent landed cost (calculated at 159.37). Current 159.37 is +4.0% above 2026’s average of 153.2 — pushing cost floor up by ¥450/t+. Nikkei +1.30% offers no meaningful offset: only 11.7% of its index weight is energy-intensive (JODI-weighted downstream split). Stocks offer no buffer: Japan’s crude stocks stand at 272,336 kbbl — covering just 10.9 days vs 2,492 kbpd imports, or 11.6 days vs 2,349 kbpd refinery input. That’s far below Korea’s 117,566 kbbl covering 39.5 days vs 2,977 kbpd input — and well below China’s safety norm. Finished products total 104,521 kbbl; lamp oil (20,523) and diesel (17,464) are winter-high, but fuel oil sits at just 6,327 kbbl — the lowest across all categories. No LNG import data reported (JODI non-submission), narrowing coal-oil/LNG switching flexibility. Japan buyers are squeezed: Imports (2,492 kbpd) trail Korea (2,946) and China (8,956) — weakening bargaining power. While Malacca Strait sees 79 vessels/day (+4.9% vs 30-day avg), Tsushima Strait drops to 41/day (−23.5% vs 63-vessel norm), straining northbound scheduling. SNSUC clients report Tokyo Bay berth windows now extended to T+12 — spot pricing window effectively closed. Upside trigger: USD/JPY > 160.00 or Nikkei −2.0% in one day. Downside trigger: USD/JPY < 157.50 or Japan crude imports ≤2,400 kbpd for two consecutive months. Position: bearish — landed cost has entered irreversible upward phase unless BOJ intervenes. For SNSUC clients: ① Hedge Dec 1–15 ESPO shipments with USD/JPY forwards now (target 157.8–158.2); ② Pause fuel oil spot pricing; shift to Jan futures for spread hedge (front-month premium already +2.19%); ③ If Tsushima falls below 40 vessels/day for 3 straight days, activate Busan transshipment; ④ Wait only if USD/JPY < 157.50 AND next JODI shows Japan crude imports ≤2,400 kbpd.