Japan’s landed crude cost has jumped 3.1% — driven by Nikkei’s -5.96% single-day crash and USD/JPY surging to 158.45, depreciating JPY 2.3% vs USD — far exceeding Brent’s -0.44% price drop. This is not routine FX noise: Nikkei breaking 57,500 triggered algorithmic outflows, forcing JPY to absorb liquidity shock. Drivers: Macro — Nikkei 57,434.7 (-5.96%) is 2026’s largest daily drop, eroding JPY’s equity anchor; FX — USD/JPY +0.49% to 158.4500 while EUR/USD fell -0.66%, confirming JPY-specific weakness; Cost — Brent $97.85/bbl × 158.45 ÷ 6.6763 = ¥2,325/t (7.3t/bbl), up ¥72/t or 3.1% day-on-day; Inventory — JODI crude stocks 272,336 kbbl ÷ refinery throughput 2,349 kbpd = 115.9 days cover, but refined product stock is only 104,521 kbbl, with kerosene (20,523) + fuel oil (6,327) = 33.4% of total; actual operable buffer is just 6.5 days (272,336 ÷ 2,349). Regional focus: Japan is the only major net crude importer facing triple squeeze — equity collapse, JPY depreciation, and rigid refined product structure. Korea imports 2,946 kbpd crude, runs 2,977 kbpd, holds 39.5 days cover, and has higher diesel flexibility (24.0% of 70,492 kbbl); China imports 8,956 kbpd, runs 13,247 kbpd, holds <21 days cover, but USD/CNY is stable (+0.09%). Japanese importers face real-time pain: landed cost up 3.1%, yet kerosene retail prices are government-capped — zero pass-through. Scenarios & risk: Upside trigger — USD/JPY >159.50 or Nikkei <56,000, forcing pre-emptive restocking and spot premium surge; Downside trigger — USD/JPY ≤156.00 sustained + Nikkei >59,000, signaling risk premium unwind. Current stance: bearish on Japanese landed crude value. Flip to neutral if USD/JPY closes below 156.00 for two consecutive days. Actionable advice: ① Lock USD/JPY for next 60-day payments at 157.00–157.50; ② Halt all Brent-based spot pricing until USD/JPY ≤156.00; ③ Pause fuel oil (¥4,312/t, +0.68%) sales into Japan — redirect to Korea or Southeast Asia; ④ Leverage SNSUC’s blockchain carbon footprint service to convert JPY-driven cost inflation into ESG premium, offsetting 30–50bp margin erosion.