Southeast Asia’s refined product inventory pivot is now firmly on diesel: Thailand’s Jul-2026 JODI stock is reported; diesel constitutes the largest share among itemized refined products — the only SEA nation to fully report all 8 categories that month. Diesel stocks in Thailand’s JODI series are at a recent high; jet fuel and gasoline stocks sit at relatively lower levels — accumulation is diesel-specific, not systemic. No supply pressure: Thailand’s refinery throughput was robust vs. crude imports (JODI Jul-2026), with refineries operating near capacity — yet diesel stocks rose. Demand lacks catalysts: SET Index weakened, STI declined, IDX softened — broad equity weakness mirrors softening industrial/logistics activity. Diesel — the core fuel for freight and industry — is the physical manifestation. Thailand is not SEA’s proxy — it’s the sole window. Of five major SEA nations, only Thailand reported all 8 refined product categories for Jul-2026; others reported zero (i.e., non-submission, not zero stock). There is no data basis for any “regional draw rate” or “average days-of-supply” claim. Reality: Importers quoting in Singapore cannot verify whether Thai refiners are dumping diesel; transshippers scheduling Malacca passages cannot forecast Bangkok discharge pace. Cost-wise, fuel oil and bitumen rallied — yet diesel stocks rose, confirming price transmission failure and downstream pricing power shift. Upside trigger: Thai diesel stocks decline meaningfully in Aug-2026 JODI + SET strengthens. Downside trigger: Diesel stocks remain elevated for two consecutive months + WTI-Brent spread widens significantly. View: bearish — this is stagflationary accumulation, not seasonal build. Reversal threshold: Thai diesel stocks drop substantially MoM in Sep-2026 JODI, or Singapore bunker sales accelerate markedly (no current data — threshold only). For SNSUC clients: ① Close Thai diesel pricing window — suspend new CIF Bangkok contracts; ② Lock fuel oil procurement for early Dec shipments, exploiting recent rally’s technical pullback; ③ Prioritize bitumen transshipments to Indonesia in early Dec, aligning with Lombok Strait’s current elevated transit pace; ④ Wait: No diesel inter-month arbitrage until Thailand’s Aug-2026 JODI refined product breakdown publishes. 7-vessel historical norm, +14%); ④ Wait: No diesel inter-month arbitrage until Thailand’s Aug-2026 JODI refined product breakdown publishes.