SE Asia’s aggregate refinery input (1,966 kb/d) vs. crude imports (2,451 kb/d) yields a headline deficit of -485 kb/d — but structural divergence dominates: Thailand’s input (1,039) exceeds its imports (946) by 93 kb/d; Indonesia’s input (953) exceeds imports (368) by 585 kb/d. Together, they generate 678 kb/d net processing capacity — fully offsetting Malaysia (329), Philippines (103), and Singapore (715) imports, with surplus remaining. Only Thailand and Indonesia possess real net refining output; Indonesia’s +585 kb/d gap alone exceeds Singapore’s entire monthly crude intake (715). Supply: Indonesia’s domestic output (546 kb/d) + imports (368) enables 953 kb/d input — 85% self-sufficiency. Thailand’s output (176) + imports (946) support 1,039 kb/d input — just 15% self-sufficient, implying high refinery utilization. Demand: Thailand’s distillate stocks (9,913 kb) = 44.0% of 22,511 kb total — infrastructure/transport demand remains rigid; Indonesia reported zero distillate stock data — not absence, only non-disclosure per JODI. Inventory: Thailand’s crude stock (24,367 kb) covers 23.4 days at 1,039 kb/d input — upper bound of safety. Singapore reported no stock — no buffer assessment possible. SE Asia buyers face real cost bifurcation: WTI +0.28%, Brent +0.57%, USD/CNY +0.04% → fuel oil futures jumped +3.04% to ¥4,236/t; USD/THB -0.18% eases Thai import bills, USD/SGD +0.11% tightens SGD procurement. Crucially, Thailand and Indonesia are now running true ‘import-refine-re-export’ loops — SNSUC clients still routing via Singapore may miss growing bonded processing flows from Bangkok and Jakarta ports. Upside trigger: Two consecutive months of Indonesia’s refinery input ≥950 kb/d with no import revision confirms stable domestic crude-to-refining linkage. Downside trigger: Thailand’s input drops below 1,000 kb/d OR crude stock falls below 20,000 kb — signals core processing stress. Current stance: Bullish. Shift to strong bullish if Brent > $98.50 AND Thailand’s crude stock drops >1,200 kb/week. Shift to neutral if Indonesia’s next JODI import print jumps to ≥500 kb/d — implies domestic crude mismatch. For SNSUC clients: ① Fuel oil pricing window open for Thailand-bound cargo — lock Dec-loading quotes within 3 business days. ② Delay butadiene rubber procurement for Indonesia until Nov 25 — rising local deep-processing capacity suppresses spot premiums. ③ Prioritize Singapore-origin vessels to align with Bangkok/Pelabuhan Klang discharge windows — avoid Jurong Island storage congestion. ④ Pause new Malaysian crude import positions — 329 kb/d imports lack matching refinery data, raising arrival clustering risk.