The LPG leg is a seesaw between exchange rates and propane's landed price. Propane is quoted in dollars and settled in yuan domestically; USD/CNY now at 6.6726 has eased from earlier highs. The same 600-dollar FOB propane converts to a cheaper yuan landed cost by tens of yuan.

That saving drops straight into the PDH book. Propane dehydrogenation to propylene has been squeezed between expensive propane and cheap propylene, keeping run rates low. With landed cost loosening, marginal units finally poked their cash flow above water, and several East China PDH trains flipped from loss to positive.

But do not read this as a trend turn. Polypropylene downstream is still building inventory and end demand has not caught up; the PDH improvement came from the cost side giving way, not from demand pulling. The restart pace hinges on whether propylene can pass the price rise downstream.

For SNSUC's product board, LPG is a compliant light hydrocarbon that sits with fuel oil and bitumen on the energy-chemical base. Its arbitrage and landed-cost math can share one sheet with the rest instead of starting over.