In H1, concentrated domestic lubricating grease capacity additions temporarily lowered import dependency; carbon black apparent consumption rebounded on recovering home-appliance and auto demand. For H2, watch the arrival pace of low-cost Middle-East and North-American cargoes and the pass-through of freight-index moves to landed cost. Regional spreads (South vs. East China) are narrowing — we suggest hedging to lock margin rather than taking directional spread bets.