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The Hormuz Corridor and Ethylene Pricing Power: Reassessing Supply-Chain Resilience
We revisit the 2026 Hormuz disruption's impact on Asian naphtha and ethylene pricing, and reassess the real value of strategic reserves, feedstock diversification and resilience tooling.
全球约
20%
— Flat
货一度上涨
65%
▲ Up
月约
80%
— Flat
The Feb–Mar 2026 Hormuz disruption hit ~20% of seaborne crude and a large share of LNG/naphtha flows; Northeast Asian naphtha spot jumped 65%–82%, ethylene nearly doubled versus pre-event, and regional cracker runs fell from ~80% (Feb) to ~70% (Mar), with several Korean units at 50%–65% and Formosa's 2.93 Mt Taiwanese capacity declared force majeure. Though eased, the crisis put feedstock security on the board: the fragility of naphtha dependence on the Middle East (50%–70% of JP/KR imports) is laid bare. Near-term, Chinese traders should prioritize supply security over spot bargains, tracking naphtha, crude and Gulf shipping; medium-term, rising US ethane imports, feedstock diversification and strategic reserves hedge single-point disruption.