Per CNPC's Feb-2026 oil & gas industry report, China's ethylene equivalent imports were ~15 Mt in 2025 with self-sufficiency at 78.1%, and 2026 is set to add 8.05 Mt/y of capacity to ~70.75 Mt/y total, pushing ethylene and PX self-sufficiency above 80%. The capacity ramp is bringing import substitution to the fore: in Q1 2026 China turned from net PP importer to net exporter, with Jan–Feb PE exports +61.5% yoy and PP exports +30.3% yoy, while high-end polyolefin import dependence is projected to fall below 25% from 35%. For traders, this window rewrites regional-spread logic — Middle-East naphtha swings and Korean export curbs open room for Chinese grades to fill Asia-Pacific gaps — yet with sector operating rates only 76%–85% and oversupply in commodity grades, margins concentrate among feedstock-light, integrated producers. We advise factoring 'plant feedstock structure' and 'high-end grade share' into counterparty and credit assessment, not price alone.