By end-Jul 2026 the national ETS had cleared 930 Mt cumulatively (¥62.9bn+) across power, steel, cement and aluminium smelting — ~65% of national CO2 — with the carbon price up from ¥48/t at launch to ~¥90/t. Under the 15th FYP, the market expands to petrochemicals, chemicals, aviation and pulp/paper before 2027; petrochemicals and chemicals — highly standardized — are likely first, with quotas tightening from 2027 under a free-plus-paid dual track. Coal-based base chemicals face materially higher per-unit carbon cost than gas routes. We advise exporters and producers to build product carbon-footprint ledgers early, pursue green-power substitution and feedstock lightening, and lock carbon cost via medium-term contracts before the tightening bites.