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Green Methanol's Supply-Demand Chessboard: Capacity, Bunkering and Fleet Optionality
After IMO MEPC84, we analyze the green-methanol supply/demand chessboard — capacity ramp, bunkering bottlenecks and the 'methanol-ready' fleet strategy — and its spillover to the methanol-olefin chain.
年产能目标
800万吨
— Flat
甲醇贸易约
350万吨
— Flat
年预计破
500万吨
— Flat
IMO MEPC84 (Apr 2026) approved a unified framework for methanol/ammonia/ethanol-fuelled engines, setting compliance standards for green-fuel vessels. On demand, LNG took 70%+ of H1-2026 green newbuild orders while methanol newbuilds fell; owners shifted to 'methanol-ready' designs (85 vessels in H1) to preserve fuel-switch optionality. On supply, China's green-methanol action plan targets 8 Mt capacity in 2026 and admits green methanol into the ETS offset mechanism; 2025 global trade was ~3.5 Mt, projected >5 Mt in 2026. For petchem traders, green methanol is both incremental demand and a re-shaped feedstock cost curve via 'green power + green H2 + CCS' — players with cheap renewables and bunkering reach will lead the long-term decarbonization window.