Natural rubber quoted RMB 18,905/t (+0.51%) and butadiene rubber RMB 14,435/t (+0.31%), holding the natural-to-synthetic spread at RMB 4,470/t. Peak Southeast Asian tapping season is disrupted by rainfall while tyre OEM and replacement restocking lifts spot levels. With the spread in the upper-middle of its historical range, synthetic substitution carries real economics in compounding.

Slower Li-ion installation growth pushes low-sulfur petroleum coke toward export; calcined-coke FOB eases but Southeast Asia anode capacity restocks actively. As one of SNSUC's 13 categories, petroleum coke can leverage the re-export network to divert surplus and ease domestic inventory pressure.

Domestic Group III base-oil operating rate rises to 71%, with key viscosity-index and oxidation-stability bench tests on par with imports; paired with on-chain carbon labels, local Group III earns a 1%–2% premium in re-export pricing, cutting reliance on Middle East and Korean imports.

This morning front-month fuel oil printed ¥3,650/t (-0.54%) against bitumen at ¥4,610/t (+0.30%), widening the spread to about ¥960/t; platform reference prices for base oil, paraffin wax and petroleum coke stand at ¥7,939, ¥7,983 and ¥2,383/t respectively. Qingdao is building a smart regulatory service platform for international vessel bunkering while deepening 'one ship, multiple suppliers' and cross-terminal bonded bunker supply; Zhoushan targets 55 million cubic metres of oil storage by 2030 and greater influence for its fuel oil price index. Terminal choice and sampling cycles are shifting from compliance items to cost items, reshaping quote structures across SNSUC's petroleum-products line.

China's spot natural rubber was quoted near ¥17,791/t on 27 August, up 7.94% from ¥16,483/t at the start of the month; front-month screens this morning show natural rubber at ¥18,905/t (+0.51%) and butadiene rubber at ¥14,435/t (+0.31%). Thai cup lump holds at a high THB 70/kg and Qingdao bonded plus general-trade inventories have drawn down to 631,500 t, yet tyre operating rates sit at 64.15% for truck and bus radials and 65.81% for passenger radials (the latter down 6.06% year on year) with finished-goods stocks still elevated. NOAA puts the probability of a strong El Nino in October-December at 81%, leaving a textbook 'strong expectations, weak reality' market.

Petrochemicals enter the national ETS in 2027 at a carbon price near ¥90/t; EU CBAM enters its payment phase, internalizing carbon cost for rubber and lubricant exports. Base-oil carbon intensity falls to 1.7 tCO2e/t as digital warrants carry carbon labels on-chain, letting cross-border buyers verify product footprints with one click. Treat the carbon label as a new pricing factor in re-export.

Fully-refined paraffin food-grade share rises to 42%; microcrystalline wax gains in rubber protection and cosmetic carriers; exports +12% yoy with high-melt and food-grade specs driving the increment. Base-oil Group II/III domestic share reaches 47%, import premium narrows and localization accelerates. Traders should fold wax/base-oil combinations into the re-export category matrix to meet ESG carbon-label demand.